Taiwanese businesses hold divided views on the longevity of 'Trump 2.0"'s impact.

Around 60% anticipate its effects will be confined to his term, expecting global trade to stabilize afterward.

Conversely, 40% foresee the impact extending beyond his presidency.

Notably, 11.3% of surveyed business owners believe this could mark the establishment of a new international trade order.

Taiwanese businesses anticipate future conflict de-escalation (e.g., "return to globalization" or "US re-industrialization").

On exchange rates, firms expecting "competitive devaluation" are three times more numerous than those forecasting "Plaza Accord"-like appreciation.

While some are optimistic about easing tensions, most foresee continued market volatility and uncertainty.

Southeast Asian markets are most favored by businesses. However, optimism for most regions has declined since 2024, with American markets seeing the sharpest drop.

European market confidence improved due to anticipated Ukraine-Russia ceasefire prospects. Contrary to the general trend, sentiment towards China strengthened, driven by expected economic recovery.

While domestic and overseas Taiwanese firms largely share market preferences, key regional differences exist.

Overseas Taiwanese firms are more conservative on European markets but notably more optimistic about Southeast Asia than their domestic counterparts.

These divergences likely reflect their direct operational experiences abroad.

Expectations for the TWD/USD exchange rate have become significantly more polarized since last year's post-election survey.

The proportion anticipating stability decreased, while those expecting either appreciation or depreciation both rose.

This growing divergence suggests increased volatility risk for the TWD/USD, posing more complex currency management challenges for businesses.

Domestic and overseas Taiwanese firms diverge on TWD/USD exchange rate expectations.

Overseas firms are less likely than their domestic counterparts to anticipate stability, showing a stronger belief in TWD depreciation against the USD.

Taiwanese entrepreneurs in China hold distinct views on RMB/USD exchange rates.

While most still anticipate depreciation, significantly fewer expect "significant depreciation" compared to their counterparts in Taiwan and other regions.

They also show notably higher expectations for RMB appreciation.

Rising tariff expectations typically limit a firm's cost pass-through capabilities. Yet, Taiwanese companies surprisingly reported an enhanced ability to pass on tariff costs.

Beyond sampling bias or order transfer effects, this apparent contradiction suggests businesses are proactively adapting strategies for high-tariff scenarios, thereby strengthening their tariff management capabilities.

"Reciprocal Tariffs" prompted Taiwanese businesses to reconsider U.S. production.

Companies already producing or planning U.S. manufacturing increased by 4.1%. Conversely, those rejecting this possibility dropped from 21.1% (2024 year-end) to 15.5%.

This shift reflects strategic global adjustments amidst evolving international trade structures.

Macroeconomic risks are now paramount for Taiwanese businesses.

Geopolitical concerns have superseded operational costs as the primary worry, while vigilance toward economic fluctuations remains.

Under the emerging Trump 2.0 trade landscape, corporate focus has decisively shifted from specific operational challenges to broader geoeconomic developments with far-reaching implications.

Over the past six months, Taiwanese businesses have bolstered risk preparedness amid growing trade complexity.

Market diversification has supplanted traditional strategies like cost reduction as their primary approach. Firms are increasingly focused on building stronger foundations against geoeconomic risks, particularly through enhanced financial resilience and improved geoeconomic analysis capabilities.

Taiwanese exporters held cautious outlooks even before last year's U.S. Presidential election.

Seven months post-election, the Reciprocal Tariffs Announcement triggered a sharp decline in business confidence, demonstrating how trade uncertainty has significantly impacted business performance.

The Exporter Expectation Index briefly rose to 45.1 after last year's U.S. Presidential election, reflecting optimism toward Trump's pro-business policies.

However, following the Reciprocal Tariffs Announcement, the index sharply fell to 27.8.

This decline, exceeding the concurrent drop in the Exporter Confidence Index, indicates businesses have adopted highly cautious market outlooks amid escalating trade uncertainty.