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  • TAITRA INDEX report (Oct 2025 published)
TAITRA INDEX report (Oct 2025 published)

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2025

2024

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The Next Major Geoeconomic Event image

Survey Date:2025/09/10

A significant shift in corporate outlook has occurred since the new tariffs took effect.

The primary concern has pivoted from currency devaluation to the intensification of international conflicts, highlighting a growing apprehension about geopolitical instability.

Concurrently, expectations for U.S. re-industrialization have doubled, indicating that Taiwanese businesses are not just reacting to threats but are actively preparing for a fundamental restructuring of the global economic framework.

Expected U.S. Tariff Changes image

Survey Date:2025/09/10

The forecast for U.S. tariffs is dominated by uncertainty.

Nearly 44% of Taiwanese businesses expect continuous fluctuations over the next three years, signaling that they are bracing for a period of unpredictability.

Yet, a significant undercurrent of optimism persists, with over 22% anticipating a potential decrease.

This suggests a lingering hope for a de-escalation of trade tensions and a return to a more predictable, globalized economic order.

Pricing Power to Manage Tariff Costs image

Survey Date:2025/09/10

The new tariffs are placing significant pressure on corporate profitability.

The proportion of businesses forced to absorb these additional costs has rebounded to a recent high, while their ability to pass them on to customers has diminished.

This trend clearly illustrates the immediate difficulties companies face in navigating the new tariff landscape and suggests a challenging short-term outlook for profit margins.​

TWD-USD Exchange Rate Outlook image

Survey Date:2025/09/10

A decisive reversal in currency outlook is now evident.

Compared to previous surveys, the prevailing corporate sentiment has pivoted from anticipating depreciation to forecasting an appreciation of the New Taiwan Dollar.

This view is now shared by over 40% of businesses, with a notable 4% believing the currency could strengthen sharply to a historic high over the next three years, signaling a fundamental shift in the currency regime.

RMB-USD Exchange Rate Outlook for the Next Three Years image

Survey Date:2025/09/10

The corporate outlook on the Chinese Yuan, while still leaning towards depreciation, has become significantly less bearish.

Conviction for a weakening currency has softened considerably since the last survey, with a notable shift in sentiment.

In its place, a growing contingent of businesses now anticipates either stability or a potential appreciation, indicating a more nuanced view of the Yuan's future trajectory.

Plans to Manufacture in the U.S. image

Survey Date:2025/09/10

The momentum for shifting production to the U.S. appears to be moderating as companies adopt a more cautious stance.

While the number of businesses actively planning this move has slightly decreased, there is a more telling increase in those who now deem it impossible.

This shift suggests that companies are carefully weighing the strategic imperative to adapt to trade shifts against the significant operational challenges of relocation, seeking a prudent balance in their global manufacturing footprint.

Geoeconomic Preparedness Index image

Survey Date:2025/09/10

A clear strategic pivot is underway in the post-tariff environment.

The focus on external risk mitigation, such as market diversification, has eased as companies shift their attention to internal strengths.

Strengthening product competitiveness has now emerged as the paramount corporate strategy.

This is coupled with a sharp decline in the emphasis on building geo-economic analysis capabilities, suggesting that in a rapidly changing and unpredictable global landscape, businesses are choosing to concentrate on what they can directly control: the core value of their products.

Expected Duration of Trump 2.0's Impact image

Survey Date:2025/09/10

Corporate perception of the "Trump 2.0" impact is increasingly consolidating around a short-term timeline.

Following the tariff implementation, the proportion of businesses viewing these policies as a "term-limited" phenomenon has surged to over 57%.

This significant shift suggests a growing wish that the current disruption is tied to a temporary political cycle, rather than representing a permanent structural realignment of global trade.

Expected Duration of Trump 2.0's Impact(Taiwan vs. Overseas) image

Survey Date:2025/09/10

A distinct perception gap has emerged between domestic and overseas Taiwanese firms regarding the longevity of the "Trump 2.0" impact.

While domestic companies largely view the disruption as a short-term political cycle, their overseas counterparts are bracing for a more protracted reality.

Significantly, over 40% of these overseas businesses believe the effects will extend far beyond the presidential term, indicating that those on the front lines of global trade perceive a more permanent, structural shift in the economic landscape.

Expected Importance of Stablecoins in Trade image

Survey Date:2025/09/10

Taiwanese companies are demonstrating a remarkably forward-looking stance on emerging financial technology.

In the wake of new U.S. stablecoin legislation, nearly half (47.7%) of businesses now consider stablecoins to be a future cornerstone of trade settlement.

The fact that only 20% remain uncertain underscores a high level of awareness and proactive engagement with this potentially transformative settlement tool, signaling a readiness to adapt to financial innovation.

Stablecoin Adoption Among Taiwanese Bussiness image

Survey Date:2025/09/10

Stablecoin adoption is moving beyond the experimental phase into the early stages of commercial reality.

Nearly 10% of businesses are now early movers, with 5.2% already utilizing the technology and another 4.2% actively planning its implementation.

This tangible uptake signifies that stablecoins are now being seriously considered as a practical tool for trade settlement, a trend led by overseas Taiwanese firms who report an even higher rate of adoption.​

Tariff Resilience is Higher Among Stablecoin Adopters image

Survey Date:2025/09/10

A company's approach to stablecoin adoption appears to be a strong indicator of its overall business resilience and strategic posture.

Proactive adopters not only exhibit significantly higher trade confidence—being nearly twice as likely to hold an optimistic outlook than their conservative peers—but they also demonstrate superior financial agility.

This is evidenced by their greater capacity to pass on new tariff costs rather than absorbing them, thereby protecting their profit margins.

This correlation suggests that a firm's willingness to embrace technological innovation is directly linked to its ability to navigate and thrive amidst broader geoeconomic uncertainty.

Exporters Confidence Index image

Survey date:2025/09/10

Confidence in the immediate trade environment has weakened further since the new tariffs took effect, with the Exporters Confidence Index remaining firmly in pessimistic territory below the 50-point neutral line.

While the most significant drop in sentiment occurred after the initial tariff announcement, this slight continued decline indicates that the reality of the new trade landscape is cementing a cautious and challenging near-term outlook for Taiwanese exporters.

Exporters Expectation Index image

Survey Date:2025/09/10

Looking ahead, the Exporters Expectation Index shows early signs of a modest recovery, though sentiment remains deeply pessimistic.

After plunging to a low point immediately following the tariff announcement, the index has now ticked up slightly.

This subtle rebound suggests that while the future outlook is still challenging, the initial shock has been absorbed, and businesses are beginning to find a tentative footing in the new trade environment.​

Regions Expected to Do Well image

Survey Date:2025/09/10

While Southeast Asia continues to hold its position as the most promising market for the next three years, the most significant trend is the clear rebound in optimism towards the U.S. market.

This resurgence in confidence aligns perfectly with the survey's earlier finding that businesses have sharply increased their expectations for American re-industrialization, signaling a strategic refocusing on opportunities within the United States.

Key Risks of Concern to Bussiness image

Survey Date:2025/09/10

The corporate risk landscape is undergoing a significant realignment, moving beyond a singular focus on geopolitics.

Immediate operational pressures are now paramount, with economic fluctuation and operating costs solidifying their positions as the top two concerns.

Concurrently, the rising apprehension about AI and new business model disruption signals a critical shift.

This diversification illustrates that companies are now navigating a more complex, multifaceted environment where macroeconomic instability and technological transformation are as pressing as geopolitical tensions.

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