In late 2024, about one-third of businesses expected U.S. tariff increases below 10%. Following the Reciprocal Tariffs Announcement, this proportion nearly halved. Concurrently, businesses anticipating tariffs above 20% tripled from 5.2% to 16.8%, signaling widespread expectation of a high-tariff environment.
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Expected U.S. Tariff Changes Over the Next Three Years
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Plans to Manufacture in the U.S.
"Reciprocal Tariffs" prompted Taiwanese businesses to reconsider U.S. production.
Companies already producing or planning U.S. manufacturing increased by 4.1%. Conversely, those rejecting this possibility dropped from 21.1% (2024 year-end) to 15.5%.
This shift reflects strategic global adjustments amidst evolving international trade structures.
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Regions Expected to Do Well
Southeast Asian markets are most favored by businesses. However, optimism for most regions has declined since 2024, with American markets seeing the sharpest drop.
European market confidence improved due to anticipated Ukraine-Russia ceasefire prospects. Contrary to the general trend, sentiment towards China strengthened, driven by expected economic recovery.